Configuration

Single

Configure simulation parameters

Simulation Mode

Random Seed

For reproducible simulations

Simulation Years

Simulation length in years (converted to days: years × 365)

Use Historical BTC Data

Starting BTC Price (USD)

Manual starting price (skips historical data)

Volatility (%)

Annual price volatility

Target Price (USD)

Final BTC price target at simulation end

Accumulate Asset:

USD mode: Standard operation with USD accumulation

Warehouse Initial Balance ($ Mil.)

Starting USD balance

Loan Issuance Reserve (%)

Minimum USD balance % to maintain before issuing new buyer loans (separate from BTC accumulation thresholds)

NPV Discount Rate (%)

Annual discount rate for NPV-based NAV calculation

Markup Multiplier

Price markup multiplier over spot price

Installment Term (months)

Payment term in months (120 = 10 years)

Min Payment (USD)

Minimum monthly payment

Max Payment (USD)

Maximum monthly payment

Liquidation Grace Period (days)

Days before liquidation

Liquidation Fee (%)

Fee on profitable liquidations

Max Buyers Per Day

Creation rate limit

Annual Default Risk Distribution

Configure default probabilities across the 10-year loan term

Target Cumulative Default (%)

Total default probability over entire loan life

Current Cumulative

0.00%

Target

20.00%

Δ -20.00%

Yearly Breakdown (%)

Visual Distribution

Year 1Year 10

Equal: Constant probability each year

Vintage: Front-loaded (high early years, exponential decay)

Bathtub: U-shaped curve (high early, low middle, medium late)

Face Value ($ Mil.)

Bond size

Trigger Multiplier

Issuance trigger (2.0 = 2x face value)

Min Buyer Age (months)

Minimum buyer age for bonds

Creation Cutoff (years)

Stop creating bonds after this year

Swap Period (days)

Replacement window (730 = 2 years)

AAA Term (months)

AAA tranche term

BBB Term (months)

BBB tranche term (bond term = max of AAA and BBB)

BBB Interest-Only (Bullet Payment)

BBB pays interest-only monthly, with principal paid in full at term end. If insufficient cash for bullet payment, forces payment from equity.

AAA Tranche (%)

AAA tranche percentage of bond face value

BBB Tranche (%)

BBB tranche percentage of bond face value

AAA Interest Rate (%)

AAA tranche annual interest rate

BBB Interest Rate (%)

BBB tranche annual interest rate

Buyer Origination Fee (%)

Fee on new buyer origination

Promoter Fee (%)

Promoter fee as % of first payment

Bond Origination Fee (%)

Fee on bond issuance

Warehouse Loan Service Fee (%)

Annual warehouse loan service fee

Bond Loan Service Fee (%)

Annual bond loan service fee

NAV Fee (%)

Annual NAV management fee

Enable Prime Broker

Enable warehouse leverage via prime broker credit facility

Credit Multiplier

Credit line as multiple of warehouse capital

Interest Rate (%)

Annual interest rate on borrowed funds

Loan-to-Value Ratio (%)

Maximum loan as % of buyer terminal value

Hurdle Rate (%)

Expected annual NAV growth rate

GP Share (%)

GP's share of returns above hurdle

LP Share (%)

LP's share of returns above hurdle

Results

Simulation output and analysis

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